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Are bookies better at predicting elections than the national polls? That question has yes and no answers, and to our knowledge has never been determined by a recognized and scientifically controlled study. “I want to hedge my bets.” Not only can a hedge betting system NOT beat a game like craps, but it also won’t even dent the house edge....

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Hedge betting by using one wager to offset the “negative probabilities” of another wager is just not smart betting on a crap game. Democrat leaning Indies can choose the republican they are most sure their desired nominee will trounce in the general election and buoy him or her by voting for the other side in the primary, then casting a ballot for their favored party’s nominee in November. But the odds are all over the place with Paddy Power favoring Trump at 1/6 and Rubio 4/1, while Betfair is ranking Trump, Kasich, Rubio and Cruz....

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In 1933, Wilson Mizner lay dying. Overall pollsters are still giving Hillary Clinton favorable odds of besting both fields to take the office of President of the United States – but the race is wide open with multiple variables. As of this morning Clinton is even to take the presidency and Rubio is -150 to Trump’s +160....

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Here you have the Independent voter who can vote as a Republican or Democrat and that adds some chaos to a mix that already holds the free radical game changing Donald Trump. The sword cuts both ways – if a Republican (registered as an Independent) thinks any eventual candidate would do better than Sanders or Clinton in November, they can vote for the weaker Democrat Tuesday.4% house edge by laying odds....

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New Hampshire voters will choose between two Democrats and a field of Republican candidates. The logic here is analogous to diversifying your investment portfolio by buying bonds to “protect” against losses that you might experience in the stock market. New Hampshire voters will choose between two Democrats and a field of Republican candidates....